working papers

Creating Cohesive Communities: A Youth Camp Experiment in India
w/ Arkadev Ghosh, Prerna Kundu, Matt Lowe
abstract Non-family-based institutions for socializing young people may play a vital role in creating close-knit, inclusive communities. We study the potential for youth camps—integrating rituals, sports, and civics training—to strengthen intergroup cohesion. We randomly assigned Hindu and Muslim adolescent boys, from West Bengal, India, to two-week camps or to a pure control arm. To isolate mechanisms, we cross-randomized collective rituals (such as singing the national anthem, wearing uniforms, chanting support during matches, and synchronous dancing) and the intensity of intergroup contact. We find that camps reduce ingroup bias, increase willingness to interact with outgroup members, and enhance psychological well-being. Campers continue to have more than twice as many outgroup friends than control participants one year after the camps ended. Meanwhile, additional camp elements have heterogeneous effects: rituals have more positive impacts for the Hindu majority than the Muslim minority, while higher intergroup contact backfires among Hindus but not Muslims. Our findings demonstrate that inclusive youth camps may be a powerful tool for bridging deep social divides. Yet, we also highlight the conceptual challenges in crafting optimal integrative camps that help all groups.

paper & appendix

Poverty and Prejudice Before Genocide
w/ Constant Courtin, Michael Weaver
abstract Genocides rank among the darkest episodes in our history. What drives prejudice against targeted outgroups in the lead-up to mass killings? We theorize the role played by democratization, ethnoreligious threat perceptions, and economic discontent in generating antiminority hatred. We assess these factors’ predictive strength using a new 22,000-person survey of Islamophobia in Myanmar, fielded shortly before the 2017 ethnic cleansing of the country’s Muslim Rohingya population. Integrating survey responses with administrative data, events data, and geodata, we document a robust association between poverty and anti-Muslim attitudes among members of Myanmar’s Buddhist majority. The relationship holds ecologically and by individual. Further tests point to scapegoating rather than resource competition as the most plausible mechanism. Other commonly cited drivers of intolerance receive little empirical support. By leveraging a critical contemporary case, our paper sheds light on the material foundations of polarized social preferences in settings at high risk of intergroup violence.

paper & appendix


in progress

Learning About Outgroups: Comparing Broad Versus Deep Connections
w/ Anujit Chakraborty, Arkadev Ghosh, Matt Lowe

House of Castes: A School-Level Experiment on Intergroup Relations in India
w/ Arkadev Ghosh, Prerna Kundu, Matt Lowe, Johny Tom Varghese


publications

[article] The Electoral Consequences of Mass Religious Events: India’s Kumbh Mela
w/ Siddhartha Baral, Michael Weaver American Journal of Political Science (Accepted)
abstract Mass ritualized gatherings like pilgrimages are central to religious practice globally. Do they generate votes for religious parties? The events may heighten religiosity, enlarging support for parties seen as owning religious policy issues. Such parties might also co-opt the events to organize and campaign. We evaluate the electoral impact of India’s Kumbh Mela, a Hindu festival considered the world’s biggest human assembly, leveraging its astrologically determined timing combined with districts’ proximity by rail to the festival sites. The Kumbh Mela boosts Hindu nationalists’ vote share. Mechanisms tests suggest it does so by increasing religious orthodoxy—seen in the adoption of Brahminical dietary practices—and by strengthening Hindu nationalist party infrastructure. Communal violence is unaffected, but the events are electorally polarizing; they cause India’s main secular-leaning party to perform better in regions with denser concentrations of religious minorities. Our study offers a new account of how confessional parties make inroads in multiethnic democracies.

paper & appendix

[article] Election Cycles and Global Religious Intolerance
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022; v120/1)
abstract Mass elections are key mechanisms for collective decision-making. But they are also blamed for creating inter-group enmity, particularly while they are underway; politicians use polarizing campaign strategies, and losing sides feel resentful and marginalized after results are announced. I investigate the impact of election proximity—that is, closeness to elections in time—on social cleavages related to religion, a salient form of group identity worldwide. Integrating data from ~1.2 million respondents across 25 cross-country survey series, I find no evidence that people interviewed shortly before or after national elections are more likely to express negative attitudes toward religious outgroups than those interviewed at other times. Subgroup analysis reveals little heterogeneity, including by levels of political competition. Generalized social trust, too, is unaffected by election calendars. Elections may not pose as great a risk to social cohesion as is commonly feared.

paper | si | data

[article] Rethinking the Study of Electoral Politics in the Developing World: Reflections on the Indian Case
w/ Adam Auerbach, Jennifer Bussell, Simon Chauchard, Francesca Jensenius, Mark Schneider, Neelanjan Sircar, Pavithra Suryanarayan, Tariq Thachil, Milan Vaishnav, Rahul Verma, Adam Ziegfeld
Perspectives on Politics (2022; v20/n1; p250-64)
abstract In the study of electoral politics and political behavior in the developing world, India is often considered to be an exemplar of the centrality of contingency in distributive politics, the role of ethnicity in shaping political behavior, and the organizational weakness of political parties. Whereas these axioms have some empirical basis, the massive changes in political practices, the vast variation in political patterns, and the burgeoning literature on subnational dynamics in India mean that such generalizations are not tenable. In this article, we consider research on India that compels us to rethink the contention that India neatly fits the prevailing wisdom in the comparative politics literature. Our objective is to elucidate how the many nuanced insights about Indian politics can improve our understanding of electoral behavior both across and within other countries, allowing us to question core assumptions in theories of comparative politics.
paper
[article] Overcoming the Political Exclusion of Migrants: Theory and Experimental Evidence from India
American Political Science Review (2021; v115/n4; p1129–46)
w/ Nikhar Gaikwad
Honorable mention for the 2022 Lawrence Longley Award by the Representation and Electoral Systems Section of the American Political Science Association, for the best article published in the previous year
abstract Migrants are politically marginalized in cities of the developing world, participating in destination-area elections less than local-born residents. We theorize three reasons for this shortfall: migrant’s socio-economic links to origin regions; bureaucratic obstacles to enrollment that disproportionately burden newcomers; and ostracism by anti-migrant politicians. We randomized a door-to-door drive to facilitate voter registration among internal migrants to two Indian cities. Ties to origin regions do not predict willingness to become registered locally. Meanwhile, assistance navigating the electoral bureaucracy increased migrant registration rates by 24 percentage points and substantially boosted next-election turnout. An additional treatment arm informed politicians about the drive in a subset of localities; rather than ignoring new migrant voters, elites amplified campaign efforts in response. We conclude that onerous registration requirements impede the political incorporation, and thus the wellbeing, of migrant communities in fast-urbanizing settings. The findings also matter for assimilating naturalized yet politically excluded cross-border immigrants.
paper | appendix | data | pre-analysis plan | coverage: [article] Do Politicians Discriminate Against Internal Migrants? Evidence from Nationwide Field Experiments in India
w/ Nikhar Gaikwad
American Journal of Political Science (2021; v65/n4; p790-806)
abstract Rural-to-urban migration is reshaping the economic and social landscape of the Global South. Yet migrants often struggle to integrate into cities. We conduct countrywide audit experiments in India to test whether urban politicians discriminate against internal migrants in providing constituency services. Signaling that a citizen is a city newcomer, as opposed to a long-term resident, causes incumbent politicians to be significantly less likely to respond to requests for help. Standard “nativist” concerns do not appear to explain this representation gap. We theorize that migrants are structurally disposed to participate in destination-area elections at lower rates than long-term residents. Knowing this, reelection minded politicians decline to cater to migrant interests. Follow-up experiments support the hypothesis. We expect our findings to generalize to fast-urbanizing democracies, with implications for international immigration too. Policywise, mitigating migrants’ de facto disenfranchisement should improve their welfare.
paper & appendix | data | coverage:
[article] Does Electing Islamists Increase Religious Violence and Intolerance?
British Journal of Political Science (2021; v51/n3; p1340-47)
w/ Nicholas Kuipers, Michael Weaver
abstract We estimate the effect of incumbency by Islamist parties on the incidence of religious violence and intolerance in Indonesia, exploiting discontinuities in the proportional representation system used to allocate seats in district legislative elections—the most local tier of parliamentary government. We find that the presence of additional Islamist (as opposed to secular nationalist) legislators exacerbates religious conflict according to certain measures. There is no evidence that Islamist rule affects average attitudes toward religious minorities among majority-group survey respondents, although it does increase expressions of extreme intolerance. Social emboldening may underlie these effects, as Islamist incumbency appears to boost the perceived acceptability of holding intolerant worldviews. The results shed light on the consequences of having extremist parties gain a share in local power.
paper | appendix | data | pre-analysis plan | coverage: [book] Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning: Lessons from Metaketa I
Cambridge University Press (2019)
co-edited w/ Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Susan Hyde, Macartan Humphreys, Craig McIntosh
Winner of the 2019 Best Book in Experimental Research award by the Experimental Research Section of the American Political Science Association
abstract Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the inaugural Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantive question and at the same time introduce a new model for cumulative learning that increases coordination among otherwise independent researcher teams. It presents the cumulative results (meta-analysis) from six independently conducted but coordinated field experimental studies, the results from each individual study, the findings from a related evaluation of whether practitioners utilize this information as expected, and discusses lessons learned from EGAP’s efforts to coordinate field experiments, increase replication of theoretically important questions across contexts, and increase the external validity of field experimental research.
amazon | data | pre-analysis plans | coverage: [article] Voter Information Campaigns and Political Accountability: Cumulative Findings from a Preregistered Meta-analysis of Coordinated Trials w/ Thad Dunning, Guy Grossman, Susan Hyde, Macartan Humphreys, Craig McIntosh, Claire L. Adida, Eric Arias, Clara Bicalho, Taylor C. Boas, Mark T. Buntaine, Simon Chauchard, Anirvan Chowdhury, Jessica Gottlier, F. Daniel Hidalgo, Marcus Holmlund, Ryan Jablonski, Eric Kramon, Horacio Larreguy, Malte Lierl, John Marshall, Gwyneth McClendon, Marcus A. Melo, Daniel L. Nielson, Paula M. Pickering, Melina R. Platas, Pablo Querubin, Pia Raffler, Neelanjan Sircar
Science Advances (2019; v5/n7)
abstract Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Such interventions build on core assumptions of many theoretical models in political science. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the generalizability and reliability of bodies of published research. We implemented a novel approach to cumulative learning, coordinating on the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommonly for multi-site trials in the social sciences, we jointly pre-registered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, non-partisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, though exploratory and sub-group analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.

paper | appendix | data | pre-analysis plan

[article] Secular Party Rule and Religious Violence in Pakistan
American Political Science Review (2018; v112/n1; p49–67)
w/ Niloufer Siddiqui
abstract Does secular party incumbency affect religious violence? Existing theory is ambiguous. On the one hand, religiously-motivated militants might target areas that vote secularists into office. On the other hand, secular party politicians, reliant on the support of violence-hit communities, may face powerful electoral incentives to quell attacks. Candidates bent on preventing bloodshed might also sort into such parties. To adjudicate these claims, we combine constituency-level election returns with events data on Islamist and sectarian violence in Pakistan (1988–2011). For identification, we compare districts where secular parties narrowly won or lost elections. We find that secularist rule causes a sizable reduction in local religious conflict. Additional analyses suggest that the result stems from electoral pressures to cater to core party supporters, and not from politician selection. The effect is concentrated in regions with denser police presence, highlighting the importance of state capacity for suppressing religious disorder.
paper | appendix | data | coverage: [article] Do Parties Matter for Ethnic Violence? Evidence from India
Quarterly Journal of Political Science (2016; v11/n3; p249–77)
w/ Michael Weaver, Steven Rosenzweig
abstract Ethnic group conflict is among the most serious threats facing young democracies. In this paper, we investigate whether the partisanship of incumbent politicians affects the incidence and severity of local ethnic violence. Using a novel application of the regression-discontinuity design, we show that as-if random victory by candidates representing India’s Congress party in close state assembly elections between 1962 and 2000 reduced Hindu–Muslim rioting. The effects are large. Simulations reveal that had Congress lost all close elections in this period, India would have experienced 11 percent more riots. Additional analyses suggest that Congress candidates’ dependence on local Muslim votes, as well as apprehensions about religious polarization of the electorate in the event of riots breaking out, are what drive the observed effect. Our findings shed new light on parties’ connection to ethnic conflict, the relevance of partisanship in developing states, and the puzzle of democratic consolidation in ethnically divided societies.
paper | appendix | data | coverage: [article] The Majority-Minority Divide in Attitudes Toward Internal Migration: Evidence from Mumbai
American Journal of Political Science (2017; v61/n2; p456–72)
w/ Nikhar Gaikwad
abstract Rapid urbanization is among the major processes affecting the developing world. The influx of migrants to cities frequently provokes antagonism on the part of long‐term residents, manifested in labor market discrimination, political nativism, and violence. We implemented a novel, face‐to‐face survey experiment on a representative sample of Mumbai’s population to elucidate the causes of anti‐migrant hostility. Our findings point to the centrality of material self‐interest in the formation of native attitudes. Dominant group members fail to heed migrants’ ethnic attributes, yet for minority group respondents, considerations of ethnicity and economic threat crosscut. We introduce a new political mechanism to explain this divergence. Minority communities facing persistent discrimination view in‐migration by coethnics as a means of enlarging their demographic and electoral base, thereby achieving “safety in numbers.” Our article sheds light on the drivers of preferences over internal migration. It also contributes insights to the international immigration literature and to policy debates over urban expansion.
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